The demand for LNG is booming. The global trade volume of LNG had already been constantly increasing over the previous five decades. What role will it play in future? LNG is the cleanest fossil fuel and also comes in a green version, so it is likely that it will be used for a long time to come.
Flexible import sources for greater energy security
For some time now, many countries have been importing at least some of their natural gas in liquid form as LNG (liquefied natural gas) using tankers. Importers of liquefied natural gas remain largely independent of individual suppliers. This is why most coastal countries in the EU have import terminals for liquefied natural gas. These can also be found in many countries throughout Asia and America.
However, Germany is different. Or at least it used to be, as since mid-2022 the country has been working flat out to build infrastructure for unloading, storing and regasifying LNG. Although the energy revolution has begun to pick up speed, the country, which is sticking to its strategy of phasing out coal and nuclear power, will not be able to do without natural gas for many years to come. On the one hand, natural gas is required by energy-intensive industries which also sometimes use methane as a raw material. On the other hand, the development of carbon-neutral alternative technologies for the power supply has not yet progressed as planned.
Natural gas-fired power plants support the energy revolution
Even before the war in Ukraine, it was clear that natural gas is an extremely significant bridging technology for the transition to renewable energy sources. Photovoltaics and wind power are already very important in most countries' current energy mix, and they are being continuously extended. However, power generation using these sources is volatile and different to predict. As long as there is a lack of storage capacity, for example through hydrogen production via electrolysis or pump storage, back-up power plants must be available. It should be possible to use these as flexibly as possible. This affects gas-fired power plants, unlike nuclear or coal-fired power plants, for instance. They can also compensate for short-term variations in power supply and demand.
The importance of coal as an energy source is declining in developing countries, too. Out of all the fossil fuels, natural gas is simply the least harmful to the climate. When extraction, treatment, transport and storage are considered, the carbon footprint of (non-liquefied) natural gas is far better than that of coal or natural oil, according to the study "Carbon Footprint Natural Gas 1.1". The carbon footprint of non-liquefied natural gas is between 41 and 44% smaller than that of bituminous coal and brown coal. Liquefied natural gas has a poorer life-cycle assessment, which largely depends on the distance between the country of production and location of use, as well as the extraction method. The upstream chain emissions, that is to say the emissions generated by production, treatment, transport and storage, are an important factor. But even LNG that Europe obtains from as far away as Australia, where it is extracted using the unconventional method of fracking, is less harmful to the environment than coal. The LNG that is shipped from Australia to the EU is responsible for emitting 304 grams of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt hour. By contrast, bituminous coal results in total emissions of 389 grams of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt hour, with brown coal producing as much as 410 grams.
Synthetic gas can also help to implement the energy revolution. It is generated using power-to-gas technology with excess power from renewable sources.
Since LNG does not depend on pipeline infrastructure, it can help ensure a secure power supply in many places. It provides buildings that are not connected to mains natural gas with a local gas supply. This enables old oil heating systems to be replaced with modern, more eco-friendly gas boilers (together with solar systems, for example), even in remote regions.
Contribution towards decarbonising the transport sector
As a result, natural gas and therefore also LNG will continue to play a role in power generation and heating for the time being. This is despite climate chance and the strategy of switching to non-fossil fuels, which is backed by almost every country. However, in future LNG will not just be used as a bridging energy source. It can also help to significantly reduce emissions that are harmful to the climate when used as a replacement for diesel in road freight transport or to propel ships. LNG will play a major role especially for trucks used in long-distance transport. Bio LNG, which only has to be transported over short distances, offers even greater climate protection benefits. It enables the transport sector to be decarbonised in the long term.
LNG terminals ready for hydrogen?
In the long term, however, the aim is to completely replace CO2-emitting power plants and combustion furnaces with technologies which do not produce any emissions that are harmful to the climate. Green hydrogen, ammonia and other hydrogen derivatives are likely to play a crucial role in this process. This is why many terminals currently under construction are being built from the outset so that they can also be used at a later stage for importing hydrogen.
This poses a challenge, as shown by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research in a study commissioned by the European Climate Foundation (ECF). According to this study, major adjustments would have to be made in order to switch between the energy sources. Provided that the retrofitting process was considered during planning, certain parts of the LNG terminal can, however, be used for hydrogen at a later point. This would reduce or even eliminate the risk of unusable LNG terminals, known as "stranded assets". The same is true of the risk of a fossil fuel lock-in, in other words delaying the switch to climate-neutral energy sources, as is feared by critics of the expansion of LNG infrastructure. On the contrary, LNG can and will play an important role in the energy revolution.
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